A minimal stochastic model for influenza evolution

We introduce and discuss a minimal individual-based model for influenza dynamics. The model takes into account the effects of specific immunization against viral strains, but also infectivity randomness and the presence of a short-lived strain transcending immunity recently suggested in the literature. We show by simulations that the resulting model exhibits substitution of viral strains along the years, but that their divergence remains bounded. We also show that dropping any of these features results in a drastically different behavior, leading either to the extinction of the disease, to the proliferation of the viral strains, or to their divergence

The dynamics of innovation through the expansion in the adjacent possible

The experience of something new is part of our daily life. At different scales, innovation is also a crucial feature of many biological, technological and social systems. Recently, large databases witnessing human activities allowed the observation that novelties —such as the individual process of listening a song for the first time— and innovation processes —such as the fixation of new genes in a population of bacteria— share striking statistical regularities. We here indicate the expansion into the adjacent possible as a very general and powerful mechanism able to explain such regularities. Further, we will identify statistical signatures of the presence of the expansion into the adjacent possible in the analyzed datasets, and we will show that our modeling scheme is able to predict remarkably well these observations

Typologie des producteurs de pomme de terre dans la region d’ain defla

L'objet de ce travail est l’élaboration d’une typologie des producteurs de pomme de terre et l’identification des  différentes contraintes techniques qui fragilisent la filière pomme de terre à partir d’une enquête réalisée auprès d'un échantillon d'exploitations agricoles qui se spécialisent dans cette spéculation. La typologie devrait mettre en évidence les différentes catégories d’exploitations et permettre d’évaluer l’impact sur la productivité et la performance économique des facteurs considérés comme essentiels : la taille de  l’exploitation, lestatut juridique des terres, les itinéraires techniques appliqués, la  variété et la classe de la semence utilisée.MOTS CLEFS: Filière pomme de terre, semences, typologie, productivité, performance économiques

The dynamics of correlated novelties

One new thing often leads to another. Such correlated novelties are a familiar part of daily life. They are also thought to be fundamental to the evolution of biological systems, human society, and technology. By opening new possibilities, one novelty can pave the way for others in a process that Kauffman has called "expanding the adjacent possible". The dynamics of correlated novelties, however, have yet to be quantified empirically or modeled mathematically. Here we propose a simple mathematical model that mimics the process of exploring a physical, biological or conceptual space that enlarges whenever a novelty occurs. The model, a generalization of Polya's urn, predicts statistical laws for the rate at which novelties happen (analogous to Heaps' law) and for the probability distribution on the space explored (analogous to Zipf's law), as well as signatures of the hypothesized process by which one novelty sets the stage for another. We test these predictions on four data sets of human activity: the edit events of Wikipedia pages, the emergence of tags in annotation systems, the sequence of words in texts, and listening to new songs in online music catalogues. By quantifying the dynamics of correlated novelties, our results provide a starting point for a deeper understanding of the ever-expanding adjacent possible and its role in biological, linguistic, cultural, and technological evolution

Tinjauan Hak Konstitusional Terhadap Korban Bencana Lumpur Lapindo

Events ‘Lapindo Mud' in Sidoardjo shocked Indonesian society. In the case of this mud volcano, Lapindo allegedly “intentionally save ‘operational costs by not installing casing. When viewed from an economic perspective, the decision affects the installation of the casing to the costs incurred Lapindo. This case has caused harm to residents Siduardjo. This case is just one case, of cases in the field of environmental law that led to disaster for the people of Indonesia. Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia Year 1945 is to include environmental provisions in it, then followed the birth of Law Number 24 Year 2007 on Disaster Management. At the time of this disaster happened, the setting of environmental management regulated in Law Number 23 Year 1997. Are there provisions that already reflects the constitutional rights of disaster victims?Does the presence of the law could meet the challenge? How is its implementation? What about law enforcement

STRATEGI KREATIF DALAM MEMBUAT IKLAN YANG BAIK DAN EFEKTIF Brandconcept Communications Semarang ( Trijaya Utama Sakti )

Perekonomian global dewasa ini semakin berkembang. Hal yang paling menandai perkembangan tersebut adalah banyaknya kegiatan promosi yang dilakukan oleh perusahaan-perusahaan baik skala lokal, nasional, maupun internasional. Belanja iklan yang dilakukan oleh dunia bisnis juga cenderung selalu bertambah dari waktu ke waktu (Widyatama 2005: 5). Masyarakat industri semakin sadar bahwa kegiatan promosi sebagai salah satu bentuk komunikasi pemasaran sangatlah penting dipraktekkan dalam menghadapi situasi persaingaindustri yang semakin ketat akhir-akhir ini. Periklanan berhubungan sangat erat dengan "Promotion Mix". Promotion Mix ifu sendiri merupakan salah satu bagian dafi "Marketing Mix" yang terdiri dari produk, harga, distribusi, dan promosi. Kesuksesan periklanan juga tergantung pada tiga hal lain dari Marketing Mix. Kini periklanan tidak hanya tergantung pada distribusi dan harga, tetapi secara meningkat, periklanan juga selaras dengan promosi dan sarana penjualan lainnya (Russell dan Lane 1999: 25). Salah satu bagian dari promosi, yang juga periklanan menjadi sub- bagiannya, adalah iklan. Iklan adalah suatu proses komunikasi yang mempunyai kekuatan yang sangat penting sebagai alat pemasaran yang membantu menjual barang, memberikan layanan serta gagasan atau ide-ide melalui saluran tertentu dalam bentuk informasi yang persuasif (Wright dalam Liliweri 1992: 20). Iklan biasanya dikampanyekan melalui suatu komunikasi pemasaran dan periklanan yang dijalankan oleh sebuah biro iklan (advertising agency). Sebagai konsumen kita semua adalah sasaran iklan, yang mengisi hampir setiap waktu dari kehidupan kita (Khasali 1992: 4). Sebuah biro iklan harus membina hubungan yang baik dengan klien/pengiklan karena klien adalah pihak yang menggunakan jasa biro iklan yang bersangkutan. Kelangsungan hidup sebuah biro iklan ditentukan oleh klien. Klien merupakan satu bagian yang penting dalarn alur kegiatan periklanan. Bagaikan seorang raja" klien sudah seharusnya dilayani dengan sebaik-baiknya oleh biro iklan yang terikat kontrak kerja dengan klien tersebut. Klien biasanya memilih biro iklan yang akan mengerjakan "proyek'nya dengan sebuah pitching dari sejumlah biro iklan yang telah diberikan client brief. Dalam hal inilah penulis menjadi tertarik untuk mengangkat masalah merancang strategi kreatif iklan daerah. Khususnya di daerah Semarang, yaitu Brandconcept Communications, sebagai tempat Kuliah Kerja Media penulis. Dimana di setiap daerah, cara berkomunikasi antara klien, agency, dan masyarakat memiliki kecenderungan tersendiri. Seperti menciptakan brand awareness product di Solo berbeda dengan menciptakan brand awareness product di Semarang. Dari sisi komunikasi pesan, target audience yang disasar, hingga kontent visual yang diangkat. Brandconcept Communications sendiri mengembangkan bisnis periklanannya meliputi iklan above the line hingga below the line. Above the line diantaranya adalah press, radio, televisi, baliho, spanduk. Below the line diantaranya adalah katalog, selebaran flyer,serta melalui event-event atau yang sering disebut direct marketing. Kesemuanya dilakukan oleh Brandconcept Communications untuk mempromosikan produk dari klien kepada konsumen atau sering disebut Full Service Agency. Proses pemberian brief dari klien kepada agency untuk dieksekusi menjadi sebuah iklan jadi yang siap ditempatkan di media yang tepat bukanlah hal yang mudah. Mengerti satu per satu karakter klien agar memperoleh keseimbangan antara pesan yang ingin disampaikan klien dengan komunikasi yang efektif untuk audience, memberikan suatu tantangan tersendiri bagi creative services unuk memberikan solusi terbaik bagi brief yang telah disampaikan untuk target konsumen tertentu. Dari hal tersebut di atas menjadi latar belakang penulis untuk melaksanakan KKM di Brandconcept Semarang yang merupakan anak cabang dari Jakarta serta membuka cabang lainnya di Surabaya. Serta fenomena komunikasi antara klien dan agency sendiri menjadi pilihan penulis untuk mengangkatnya menjadi judul Tugas Akhir in

Status Kerbau Lokal Di Kecamatan Waeapo Berdasarkan Struktur Populasi dan Laju Silang Dalam: The Status of Local Buffalo in District Waeapo Based on Population Structure and Inbreeding Rate

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui status populasi kerbau lokal didasarkan pada struktur populasi dan laju silang dalam per generasi. Survey dilakukan pada dua desa yang masih memelihara kerbau di Kecamatan Waeapo, dan pengambilan data dengan metode sensus terhadap semua peternak kerbau. Variabel yang diamati meliputi struktur populasi, populasi aktual, populasi efektif dan laju silang dalam per generasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan populasi kerbau yang terdapat di Kecamatan Waeapo sebanyak 374 ekor dengan komposisi berikut anak jantan 8,56% ; anak betina 7,49% (1,14 : 1), muda jantan 11,5% ; muda betina 10,96% (1,05 : 1), dan dewasa jantan 18,72% ; dewasa betina 42,78% (1 : 2,29). Ukuran populasi aktual kerbau lokal adalah 230 ekor, dengan ukuran populasi efektif sebesar 194 ekor. Laju silang dalam (inbreeding) per generasi adalah 0,26%. Mengindikasikan bahwa belum terjadinya tekanan silang

A fast no-rejection algorithm for the Category Game

The Category Game is a multi-agent model that accounts for the emergence of shared categorization patterns in a population of interacting individuals. In the framework of the model, linguistic categories appear as long lived consensus states that are constantly reshaped and re-negotiated by the communicating individuals. It is therefore crucial to investigate the long time behavior to gain a clear understanding of the dynamics. However, it turns out that the evolution of the emerging category system is so slow, already for small populations, that such an analysis has remained so far impossible. Here, we introduce a fast no-rejection algorithm for the Category Game that disentangles the physical simulation time from the CPU time, thus opening the way for thorough analysis of the model. We verify that the new algorithm is equivalent to the old one in terms of the emerging phenomenology and we quantify the CPU performances of the two algorithms, pointing out the neat advantages offered by the no-rejection one. This technical advance has already opened the way to new investigations of the model, thus helping to shed light on the fundamental issue of categorization

On the accuracy of language trees

Historical linguistics aims at inferring the most likely language phylogenetic tree starting from information concerning the evolutionary relatedness of languages. The available information are typically lists of homologous (lexical, phonological, syntactic) features or characters for many different languages. From this perspective the reconstruction of language trees is an example of inverse problems: starting from present, incomplete and often noisy, information, one aims at inferring the most likely past evolutionary history. A fundamental issue in inverse problems is the evaluation of the inference made. A standard way of dealing with this question is to generate data with artificial models in order to have full access to the evolutionary process one is going to infer. This procedure presents an intrinsic limitation: when dealing with real data sets, one typically does not know which model of evolution is the most suitable for them. A possible way out is to compare algorithmic inference with expert classifications. This is the point of view we take here by conducting a thorough survey of the accuracy of reconstruction methods as compared with the Ethnologue expert classifications. We focus in particular on state-of-the-art distance-based methods for phylogeny reconstruction using worldwide linguistic databases. In order to assess the accuracy of the inferred trees we introduce and characterize two generalizations of standard definitions of distances between trees. Based on these scores we quantify the relative performances of the distance-based algorithms considered. Further we quantify how the completeness and the coverage of the available databases affect the accuracy of the reconstruction. Finally we draw some conclusions about where the accuracy of the reconstructions in historical linguistics stands and about the leading directions to improve it.Comment: 36 pages, 14 figure